Migration Observatory Seminar – Olivier Marie (Erasmus School of Economics), 7th October 2025 at 12:00 – 13:15 (CEST)

Olivier Marie (Erasmus School of Economics) on: “From Tweets to Ballots: Refugee Inflows and Natives’ Reactions” jointly organised by Centro Studi Luca d’Agliano, Bocconi and Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto.

The seminar will be held on Tuesday, 7th October 2025 from 12:00 to 13:15 (CEST) at Fondazione Collegio Carlo Alberto, Turin.

Abstract: We examine the impact of the opening of refugee reception centers on natives’ social media activity and voting behavior in the Netherlands during the large and unexpected refugee inflow of 2015-2016. Using over 100 million geocoded tweets and a difference-in-differences approach, we find a short-lived surge in refugee salience on social media, accompanied by a decline in expressed support for refugees and increased discussions about religious minorities, particularly Islam. Linking social media salience to voting behavior, we analyze detailed voting data and document a significant rise in anti-immigration voting near newly established reception centers. This effect diminishes over time and with distance from the centers. Furthermore, we show that areas with a strong initial salience response to refugees drive increased support for anti-immigration parties, while areas with high pre-existing refugee salience exhibit no such increase in anti-immigration votes.